Beitrag
von Peter43 » Do 09.02.12 21:54
Hier der Kommentar eines Insiders (Barry Murphy) aus dem amerikanischen Forumm, vielleicht interessant für den einen oder anderen:
"The first Dafne was in CNG E273, lot480.
These are still $2-300 coins max in my opinion. I had 30 of them at one point in my collection, all EF or nearly so and never paid more than $150 for any of them except for the anepigraphic issue. The Heraclea coin isn't worth $100 yet someone pays over $1000 for it. If the buyer offered it to me for sale he'd probably be shocked when I offered him $50 and somehow I'd be the bad guy.
The market just doesn't make sense anymore. A few people with too much money paying stupid prices for things in auction. You couldn't put any of these coins up for sale retail and expect to get more than $300 for them, hell the Heraclea would probably sit for months priced at $75. The result is that anything even slightly interesting is going to auction and dealers can't buy anything. In 2003, whenI first started on my own after leaving CNG, I would send in 100 bids to a European auction or a CNG MBS and I'd win 30-40 lots, all intersting, pleasing coins. Now I can send in 200 bids and if I get 1 coin I feel lucky. Actually I don't even send the bids in anymore, it's not worth the wasted time. While the sale was going on yesterday, I was checking VCoins and MAShops to see what similar coins were priced at. I though maybe I'd buy a few nice first century coins before prices were raised. Much to my surprise there were no nice first century coins available on either site. Nothing VF or better, nothing with nice surfaces and centering, nothing really worth buying. Dealers do not have anything really nice in stock anymore. We can't buy it and in the odd chance we do get something in, it doesn't stay in stock very long.1
The market right now is dominated by a few players (10-20 "collectors"), who buy everything that is nice or unusual. They all have more money than god, so spending $100,000 for a $2000 coin really doesn't matter. They can puff up their chest and brag about what they bought, and that's really what it boils down to, bragging rights. They get treated well by all the big auction houses, dinners, trips, books etc....Then they go to the auction and see who can outbid who. It's just a game for them. It's fun, they get treated well, stocks and bonds are boring and risky these days, so why not play with coins. If you have $500,000,000 you have to put somewhere, why not put $50,000,000 in coins. It small change to them.
Most of the seller will eventualy have to sell so eventually the coins will come back on the market, hopefully at normal prices again. Unfortunately, the biggest buyer's coins will never be on the market again as they are all going to a museum. This is driving some of the price increases as collectors realize they will never have the chance to own a coin again if they don't buy it now.
There must have been 20 world records set in yesterdays auction. Lot 335, the Constantine as Caesar Follis with he interesting bust, I bought from a dealer who had a hoard of large folles in 1995 for $350. I then sold it to Triton I where it sold for $1700 or there abouts. Yesterday it sold for over $5500 all in. That has to be a record for a COnstantine as Caesar Follis. $700,000 for a Severan aureus, over $1200 for a scarce Antioch mint Philip I antoninianus (not in RIC but not rare anymore and who pays $1200 for a Philip ant with an Aequitas reverse.....NUTS!!!!!!). $6000 almost for a Septimius LAETITIA denarius with the galley on the reverse. Not rare and never more than $2000 for a nice one, $600 or so for a decent one. Over $9000 for a nice but common Vitellius denarius? Over $7000 for a Good VF Otho denarius that would not sell retail for more than $3500. I had 2 better ones in stock in NY last month for $5000 each. $15000 for an ugly style Vespasian denarius. I could go on and on......
Barry Murphy"
Jochen
Omnes vulnerant, ultima necat.